Seminar Series “Macroeconomics and Labor Markets” on 23 April 2024
We are pleased to invite you to the seminar series on “Macroeconomics and Labor Markets“ organized by the Chair of Macroeconomics at the Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Prof. Merkl, the Chair of Global Governance and International Trade at the Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Prof. Moser, and the Competence Field Macroeconomics of the Institute for Employment Research (IAB). Researchers of both institutions, as well as national and international guests, present their current work at the intersection of labor- and macroeconomics.
The upcoming seminar is scheduled for Tuesday, April 23rd, from 2:00 pm to 3:30 pm (German time) and will be conducted via Zoom.
Cynthia Doniger (Federal Reserve Board of Governors) will talk about
“Reevaluating What We Know About Labor Market Transitions and Wage Changes” (joint work with Hie Joo Ahn).
Abstract:
Using the Survey of Income and Program Participation, we confirm that the excess cyclically of new hire’s wages is driven by wage changes for employed workers to transition rapidly between jobs. We document two additional facts. First, the same excess cyclically is present for workers who report making a job-to-job quit and who report having been involuntarily separated. Second, the excess cyclically observed for rapid job-to-job movers is driven by workers for whom the new job is unstable. These two additional facts run contrary to the proposition that excess cyclical sensitivity of job-to-job movers’ wages reveals cyclical labor productivity. Using the same data, we estimate a Latent Markov Model which admits and identifies multiple job-match prone states that differ with respect to their propensity to exhibit subsequent transitions. We then infer the most likely state of each individual at each time given the statistical model and the observed pattern of labor force status and transitions for that individual. Lastly, we explore the extent to which heterogeneous latent states explain the wage data.