Nuremberg Research Seminar in Economics on 17 July 2024, LG 4.154 (!!)
You are invited to join the weekly Nuremberg Research Seminar in Economics on 17 July 2024, from 13.15 to 14.45 pm. The seminar will be held in room LG 4.154. Minki Kim (University of Mannheim) will be talking about „Disease, Human Capital, and Development: Macroeconomic Analysis of Malaria Vaccination in Sub-Saharan Africa”.
More information can be found here:
Malaria is the primary cause of death among children and a barrier to childhood human capital accumulation in sub-Saharan Africa. The macroeconomics literature thus far concludes that eradicating malaria would mainly increase populations but not sub- stantially raise living standards. This paper reassesses this conclusion by modeling and quantifying the long-run macroeconomic effects of a successful malaria vaccine. To do so, I build a general-equilibrium, overlapping generations model of childhood human capital accumulation and endogenous fertility with malaria modeled as a health shock to children. To parameterize the model, I estimate the short-run effects of reduced malaria risk on women’s fertility and children’s human capital using difference-in-differences with a recent large-scale anti-malaria campaign in Tanzania. I use these estimates to calibrate the model’s parameters and simulate the long-run general equilibrium impacts of malaria vaccines. The model suggests that a universal vaccination would increase per-capita GDP by 30% within 60 years, which is nearly ten times larger than previously estimated. The larger gains stem from higher human capital invest- ments beyond simple increases in years of schooling, amplified over multiple generations.